13年金价下跌超20%，跌入熊市不奇怪
金价昨日伯南克讲话后冲高回落，金价触及1300美元关口后迅速下跌至1270美元附近，盘中走势极为震荡。伯南克的讲话缺乏新意，市场预期仍没有改变，因此金价短期走势可能再度陷入窄幅区间内整理。不过整体看跌情绪依然浓厚。
商品大鳄罗杰斯(Rogers)周三表示，2013年黄金价格已累计下跌超过20%。黄金已持续将近12年牛市，再度跌入熊市并不令人惊讶。
罗杰斯认为，印度作为全球最大黄金消费国，对黄金走势起到非常大的影响。不过，印度的经常帐赤字因过多进口黄金及原油而变得非常高。由于印度无法控制原油价格走势，所以将压力转向黄金。印度政府已出台一系列限制该国黄金进口的措施，例如禁止分期付款信用卡购买黄金。5月前2周印度进口总值达1.35亿美元。许多经济学家表示，若印度能控制黄金进口，将会减缓经常帐赤字压力，该国经济也将重回正轨。
罗杰斯认为，SPDR黄金ETF持仓的不断外流最能诠释黄金未来走势，仅2013年就已外流超过190亿美元。2011年黄金信托基金(GLD)还是全球最大的黄金ETF，现在却滑落至第五位，且未来或将继续下滑。
此外，罗杰斯还认为，除了印度方面因素，美国经济同样对黄金施加了极大压力。近期美股不断攀升，吸引众多投资者入市，这无疑令黄金这类避险资产的吸引力遭遇重挫。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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