商品大鳄罗杰斯：黄金为何会跌入熊市
商品投资大师罗杰斯(Rogers)周三(7月17日)表示，”众所周知，黄金(1274.90,-2.60,-0.20%)之前已持续将近12年的牛市，再度跌入熊市并不令人惊讶，2013年黄金价格已累计下跌超过20%。”
罗杰斯指出，”印度是全球最大的黄金消费国，对黄金的走势起到是非常大的影响。不过，由于过多进口黄金及原油(106.25,-0.23,-0.22%)，印度的经常帐赤字也一飞冲天。印度无法控制原油价格的走势，所以只能讲压力抛到黄金上。”
他还称，”至今为止，印度政府已出台一系列限制该国打击黄金进口的措施，比如禁止分期付款信用卡购买黄金。5月前2周印度进口总值达1.35亿美元，但2周缺只有3600万美元。许多经济学家指出如果印度能够控制黄金进口，则能减缓经常帐赤字的压力，并令该国经济重回正轨。不过，印度并不是唯一对黄金采取抑制措施的国家。德国和法国也曾采取限购及限售黄金的措施。”
罗杰斯补充道，”不光是印度方面的因素影响黄金价格，美国经济也同样对黄金施加了极大的压力。近期美股不断攀升，吸引众多投资者入市，这无疑令黄金这类避险资产的吸引力遭遇重挫。”
他认为，最能诠释黄金未来走势的理由要属SPDR黄金ETF持仓的不断外流，单单2013年就已外流超过190亿美元。2011年黄金信托基金(GLD)还是全球最大的黄金ETF，现在却滑落至第五位，并且未来还有可能会继续下滑。
北京时间04:28，现货黄金报1275.71美元/盎司。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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