黄金能否破千三关口决定于伯南克言论
截至周二亚市收盘,COMEX期金主力报1280.6美元/盎司,沪金期货跟随外盘震荡走势,主力AU1312收报258.45元/克,价格基本持平上日。
隔夜,因缺乏进一步利好刺激,且市场在伯南克证词前情绪谨慎,国际金价连续第三个交易日承压于千三美元一线。
市场对美联储政策的预期是主导今年以来黄金走势的关键因素。上周三,伯南克“百年美联储”演讲中表达了与以往不同的三大信号:1、在可预见的未来都需要高度宽松的货币政策;2、现在的失业数据高估了就业市场的情况;3、发现金融市场出现紧缩。在伯南克讲话后,美元指数重挫2个点,黄金受益于美元的下跌突破近两周以来震荡区间上沿,并在随后的交易日内持稳前期涨幅,但因缺乏进一步利好刺激,金价在1300美元一线面临压力。
后市来看,伯南克将于本周就货币政策发表证词陈述。其在上周的讲话中,虽在利率前景上是鸽派的,但几乎没有驳回缩减QE规模将会相对较快地发生的预期,这也是金价迟迟未能突破1300美元的核心原因。而本周,预计伯南克将会同时言及QE规模减码和超宽松货币环境两大话题。伯南克讲话究竟涉及哪方面将会是非常关键。是和上周一样,更多的提及推迟加息,还是可能更多地表露一些缩减QE方面的想法,都将成为决定黄金至整个金融市场后期走势的关键。技术上看,金价1300美元之下中期趋势偏空格局依旧不变,反弹不宜追多,建议关注风险事件的指引。
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本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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