金银承接上周五强势 继续反弹
周一亚盘时段，现货黄金延续了上周五的反弹走势，冲高至1245美元/盎司附近，白银一度触及20.08美元，随后金银出现了一定幅度的回落，并且黄金白银小时图均收出了倒锤子线，显示上方压力沉重。上周五，在连续大跌之后，来自低位的买盘推动金银企稳反弹，美国经济数据不及预期削弱了QE政策退出的担忧也是金银反弹的重要因素。COMEX8月期金收涨12.1美元至1223.7美元/盎司，9月期银收涨1.16美元至19.56美元/盎司。
周五美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布的数据显示，美国6月芝加哥采购经理人指数（PMI）为51.6，预估为58.7。 美国经济周期研究所（ECRI）公布数据显示，6月21日当周美国领先指标较前值略有上升，但增长年率略有下滑。
此前，美联储理事斯坦（Jeremy Stein）周五表示，“就业市场现状及前景自2012年推出QE3以来已经改善很多，将在9月会议上着重考量QE政策推出之后积累的大量数据，不会过度到会议之前几周才公布的数据影响，因为最新数据对于市场参与者说可能更加显眼。”此番言论凸显没联储在9月政策会议上很可能需要考虑缩减量化宽松政策。
印度央行周四再出措施，进一步压缩黄金买家的出手空间，除非进口黄金是要用于加工制成珠宝后转出口，否则不准用黄金进行信贷交易。
本周市场再次迎来非农大戏，非农数据的不确定性可能会令投资者相对谨慎，在金银持续走低之后，做多买盘开始涌入，而且目前金价已经逼近黄金的平均成本，甚至有部分低品位金矿开始出现亏损的局面，这对持续下跌的金银价格有一定的提振作用，目前金银大趋势跌势放缓，短线仍有一定反弹力度。投资者短线可以选择回落后做多，中长线仍然以逢高做空为主。
北京时间7月1日，现货黄金报1233.75美元/盎司，现货白银报19.62美元/盎司。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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