金银空头出尽风头，谨防多头暗流涌动
周三(6月26日)，现货黄金、白银在亚盘初扩大跌幅，只因隔夜美国经济数据太过强势，令市场对美联储提前退出QE计划的预期再度升温。但是盘中金银并没有大的下行，因此昨天早盘的大幅下跌可视作是对周二美国强势经济数据的补跌。
然而上周伯南克拟定美国经济如果进一步复苏将会考虑提前退出宽松政策，市场的关注重点自然就落在了昨晚公布的美国第一季度GDP上。尽管数据显示美国经济在第一季度增速放缓，但是我们需要注意的是伯南克的讲话是在第二季度，而第一季度美国经济数据确实表现不佳，这也曾为金银提供了一定的支撑。因此美国第一季度GDP增速放缓也并不能认为其经济复苏只是昙花一现，下一个衡量美国经济复苏情况的重要数据自然落到了5月美国非农就业人数的变化。笔者认为在下次非农数据到来之前，金银有望出现一轮多头的小反攻，但是在金银避险情绪已遭破坏的背景下，反弹幅度将有限，但这也能够给予金银多头些许的喘息机会。
然而打压金银下行，遏制其反弹的另一个因素则是欧洲央行的宽松政策。德拉吉在当地时间6月25日表示，欧元区经济形势仍然需要宽松的货币政策。同时他为OMT(直接购债计划)进行了辩护，称目前欧洲央行的危机对措施显得更加重要。德拉吉称，宣布OMT已经降低了核心国家的风险，这些风险包括：欧元区解体的风险；目标平衡带来的风险；避险资金流扭曲市场利率的风险。虽然德拉吉是为了降低一些风险，但是其带来的悲观情绪导致了市场的担心。讲话过后，欧元迅速下跌，一举下破1.3000关口，英镑兑美元甚至跌逾100点。欧元如此表现，令美指大涨，打压金银下行。
但是美元指数在日线图中，已经反弹至黄金分割0.618处，继续上行的阻力较强。日内预计将有所回落，因此激进者可趁此机会搏短多，获利了结。而稳健者建议等到反弹之后寻找合适的空单入进点继续做空。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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