美元走強歐元跌勢不止，美債收益率全線攀升
周一(11月15日)受全球經濟成長和通脹憂慮以及貨幣政策預期推動，美元指數尾盤上漲0.42%，報95.51；投資者等待本周公布的美國消費者支出數據；美元兌風險敏感貨幣走低，兌歐元走高。好于預期的紐約州制造業指數發布後，加上公司債發行活躍，美債收益率升高。
如果美聯儲加息預期提升 美元本周或保持高位
澳洲聯邦銀行表示，如果美聯儲加息預期持續提升，美元本周應會保持高位。FOMC在通脹方面的反應有點落後，上周公布的CPI數據強于預期，表明潛在通脹處于高位並在擴大。盡管如此，本周公布的美國經濟數據可能無法證明應該收緊政策與否。在主要貨幣對中，我行認為澳元兌美元有下行風險；歐元兌美元可能小幅走低。英鎊兌美元將在一定程度上受到周二公布的英國就業數據的推動；紐元兌美元也可能會走強，但應關注周四新西蘭聯儲的通脹預期調查。
未來幾個月英鎊兌美元GBP/USD將暴跌至1.30
英鎊兌美元已經跌至10個多月來的最低水平。花旗銀行的經濟學家預計，英鎊未來幾個月將跌至1.30，因其未能對英國央行加息預期做出反應。中期預計英鎊將大幅走弱，未來3-6個月的目標位于1.30下方。能夠更直接地導致英鎊走高的因素可能來自于重新出現的脫歐緊張局勢，以及英國可能在月底觸發脫歐協議第16條。這將開啓英國與歐盟之間為期28天的正式談判，這意味著歐盟的任何報複更有可能通過貿易以外的渠道進行，如果不能解決，將有可能重新征收關稅，這可能會引發英鎊的更多波動。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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