高通脹推動提前加息押注，美元突破95創近16個月新高
周四(11月11日)美元指數連續第二個交易日上漲，尾盤攀升0.27%，報95.13。周三公布的數據顯示，10月美國消費者物價指數(CPI)同比漲幅創1990年以來最大，這加劇了人們對美聯儲將比預期更早加息的臆測，交易員質疑美聯儲關于目前的高通脹是“暫時的”這一立場。
美聯儲縮債和加息力度超過歐洲央行 歐元將貶值
12月16日的歐洲央行會議可能對歐元2022年的走勢至關重要，會議將發布歐洲央行的最新預測，包括對2024年通脹的首次預測。預計歐洲央行將表示核心物價保持相對穩定，這有助于該行保持中期預測的連貫性。盡管鴿派和鷹派人士將就中期前景展開辯論，但預計該行在明年年底前將繼續購買債券，並將維持購債時間至2023年。順延著歐洲央行的預期，可能會維持目前利率至2023年，與美國形成鮮明對比。因此預計歐元兌美元EUR/USD將在2022年回落至1.10
“無協議脫歐”再度發生的風險對英鎊影響甚微
荷蘭國際銀行表示，如果英國政府單方面大規模修改《北愛爾蘭議定書》，歐盟可能會暫停與英國的貿易協議，再度引發“無協議脫歐”局面的風險，但這一威脅不太可能對英鎊産生實質性影響，對市場産生的影響可能不會如市場預期般巨大。與2019年“無協議脫歐”不確定性加劇相比，英歐關系再度緊張對英鎊的影響應該“更溫和”。預計歐元兌英鎊年底前將從目前的0.8561跌至0.8500，受英國央行加息前景支撐。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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