美聯儲宣布減碼但暗示政策保持寬松，關注英國央行決議
周三(11月3日)美元指數在美聯儲聲明發布後下跌，觸及日低，美元指數尾盤跌0.27%至93.86；美債收益率曲線趨陡，30年期國債收益率上漲約3個基點。美元兌多數G-10貨幣下跌。美聯儲雖然宣布將把每月1200億美元的國債和抵押貸款支持證券(MBS)購買規模縮減150億美元，但在何時可能通過升息開始下一階段的政策“正常化”方面，美聯儲三緘其口。
美聯儲決議和鮑威爾講話市場點評
大田環球分析師表示，美聯儲的決定意味著150億美元將是目前最快的縮債速度。這也就解釋了為什麽五年期美債正面臨抛售，而兩年期美債的表現優于五年期美債。盡管美聯儲的縮債啓動時間晚于加拿大央行和英國央行，但美聯儲面臨的落後于市場的風險最終將導致其需要大幅加息
而富國銀行駐紐約策略師Erik Nelson認為，美聯儲給自己留出了調整減碼速度的空間，這應該會限制對美元的衝擊。如果有必要，美聯儲可能會加速減碼，這限制了對加息預期的鴿派重新定價，並使美元在此得到支撐。
紐約梅隆銀行分析師John Velis也提到，美聯儲關于通脹“預計將是暫時性的”措辭轉變，給11月的聲明增添了鷹派色彩。但考慮到150億美元的縮債規模已在預期之中，這只是稍微更強硬了一點。
鮑威爾講話並未對市場預期産生較大衝擊
到目前為止，鮑威爾說的任何話都沒有嚇住交易員。市場仍預期美聯儲將在2022年6月加息25個基點。如果說有什麽不同的話，那就是他們正在接受這種可能性，尤其是考慮到美聯儲的縮債時間表略早于預期。盡管美聯儲宣布的縮債步伐符合多數人的預期，但這一起點意味著美聯儲也有略微提前開始加息的空間。
分析師Chris Anstey則認為，看看美聯儲縮債的時間表，這個月他們將開始削減150億美元的債券購買，所以除非情況有所改變，否則他們將在明年6月底完成縮債。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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