美元持穩紐元領漲，美債收益率回升
周一(10月18日)美元指數漲0.03%，至93.96，盤中稍早，隨著美債收益率上升，曾達高見94.17。美國9月工廠生産創七個月最大降幅，因全球半導體供應持續短缺打壓汽車生産，進一步證明供應限制正在阻礙經濟成長。供應幹擾加劇了人們對高通脹的擔憂，並加劇了人們對美聯儲將需要采取行動遏制物價上漲的預期。
第四季度日元還有抛售賣壓，年底甚至可能跌至118
美國銀行的技術分析策略師Paul Ciana在報告中指出，從一個關聯加權指數的頭肩頂形態來看，日元已出現熊市訊號，它是今年表現最差的G10貨幣，而第四季兌美元彙率可能還會進一步下滑；今年日元兌美元貶值近10%，而一項衡量日元相對其他貨幣強弱的指標(BCWIJPY)上周五觸及三年半低點。
美國銀行認為BCWIJPY從目前水平還有4%至5%的下行空間，看跌至320；Ciana指出，美元兌日元處于上升趨勢，但從單日和周線來看都處于超買狀態，我們傾向長線做多美元，在114.35-73阻力區附近逢高退出多頭倉位，並在跌至112.20/112.40附近回補。
曆史顯示，美元兌日元自今年8月以來約5.28%的漲勢幅度相對仍小，而且可能複制2014年10月的經驗，超買後下跌反而可以布局買進，年底新高上看115.51甚至118；交叉貨幣對有上漲空間，料歐元兌日元有望走高超過今年迄今的高點134.13，下一個阻力位在137.50
預計英國央行將于下月啓動加息周期
摩根大通在英國央行行長貝利周日發表講話後，提前了其對英國央行加息的預期。該行預計英國央行11月將加息15個基點，隨後在2月和8月分別加息25個基點。（此前預期為明年2月開始加息15個基點）。經濟學家Allan monkss表示，貝利連續第二周發表強硬言論，令市場預期英國央行將采取更激進的貨幣政策。這種觀點存在的一個風險是，英國央行反而將選擇在11月發出強烈信號，然後在12月采取行動，可能會一次性加息40個基點(或在12月加息15個基點，然後在明年2月加息25個基點)。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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