金價進入震盪，多空因素糾結
關鍵字：多空因素糾結
1月13日，現貨黃金維持窄幅震盪的走勢，而美債收益率的回落則讓美元多頭處於防守，美聯儲官員申明貨幣政策會保持寬鬆，反而支撐了黃金。經濟數據表明美國消費者物價上漲，市場認為拜登政府的財政刺激措施會推動通脹。
由於勞動力市場疲軟和需求低迷遏制了通脹壓力，美國消費物價的一個關鍵指標在12月降溫；美國勞工部週三公佈的數據顯示，12月份不含食品和能源的核心消費者價格指數環比增長0.1%，低於11月0.2%的增幅。與去年同期相比，核心CPI上升1.6%。該報告顯示，通貨膨脹率仍遠低於美聯儲的目標，並且反映出在大流行病加重之際，經濟仍難以重拾動力。至於美聯儲，決策者們已經暗示計畫在相當長的一段時間內將利率維持在接近零的水準。即使價格壓力加劇，美聯儲的新通脹目標也允許通脹一段時間內適度超過2%（以美國商務部的個人消費支出價格指數衡量）。
一位知情人士透露，即將上任的美國參議院多數黨領袖查克·舒默敦促當選總統喬·拜登在他的首輪抗疫紓困計畫中提出規模超過1.3萬億美元的方案。
民主黨在參議院決選中大獲全勝，人們對當選總統拜登推動數萬億美元經濟刺激計畫的預期升溫，引發了債券市場的拋售。同時，風險偏好情緒抑制了黃金的上行空間，投資者對全球經濟強勁復蘇以及2021年美國出臺更多財政刺激措施的希望有力支撐著風險偏好情緒。新冠疫苗的推出也有助於緩解對病例激增的擔憂，黃金最小阻力路徑仍然是下行，任何上探都可能被視為賣出的機會。
短期對黃金市場來說，債券收益率依然是個需要小心的影響因素。美國債務巨大，還會有更多刺激被注入。並且金價的下跌中，黃金ETF並沒有太多流出，可能更多是投機拋售。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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