美欧经济出现分化，欧盟面临重大困局
关键词：美欧经济出现分化
7月14日，欧元兑美元出现明显涨幅，之前美国加州州长对商业活动进行了新的限制措施，进一步强化了市场认为欧元区经济复苏好于美国的预期，加上市场认为欧盟峰会出现乐观信息的预期增加，也让欧元出现进一步的变化。
在美国疫情二次蔓延的背景下，市场对美联储继续加码宽松的预期逐步升温，反观欧洲央行，在6月推出大规模货币刺激政策后，市场广泛预计欧洲央行将在周四公布的7月利率决议宣布按兵不动，货币政策分化也在一定程度上支撑欧元。
稍早数据显示，欧元区及德国7月ZEW经济景气指数均不及预期，此外美国6月季调后CPI月率回升至0.6%，为2月以来首次录得正增长，欧元兑美元对数据反应均显平淡。具体数据显示，欧元区7月ZEW经济景气指数59.6，前值58.6；德国7月ZEW经济景气指数59.3，预期60，前值63.4。
意大利、英国脱欧或其他国家方面的政治不确定性再次出现或加剧，可能打压欧元。欧元区各国分裂的风险溢价现在已经明显下降，欧元区风险溢价关键拐点是欧盟复苏基金方面出现好消息，以欧元计价的风险资产交易更为强劲。
此外欧洲央行还扩大并延长新冠肺炎大流行紧急购买计划(PEPP)，维护了该央行的权威，事实表明，欧元区货币政策和财政政策同步运行，在支持经济复苏期间产生最“积极的”效果，利好欧元。短线对欧元兑美元维持中性立场，料整理于1.1168-1.1422区间，下一支撑和阻力分别在1.1050和1.1495。
短线来看，欧洲经济复苏快于美国的背景将令欧元兑美元持续走强，而此后美元指数还可能受到美国大选选情的连带困扰，更重要到是，长期来看，过去十年间美元的上行周期或也已经因为美联储的新一轮宽松新政而迎来了反转。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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