特朗普再度炮轟美聯儲，美元轉跌
關鍵字：美元轉跌
雖然說美聯儲在9月利率決議中降息25個基點來為美元提供了一定的支撐，美元也因此而有所上漲。但是美國總統特朗普再度施壓美聯儲，要求美聯儲實行更多的寬鬆政策來緩和美國經濟，這點燃了市場對美聯儲進一步降息的預期，美元吐出大量漲幅。
儘管隔夜美聯儲9月利率決議鷹派降息25個基點為美元提供支撐，帶動美元一度上摸至98.70，但美國總統特朗普再度施壓美聯儲，要求其儘快採取更多寬鬆措施來“挽救”美國經濟，點燃市場對美聯儲年內進一步降息的預期，美元回吐大部分上個交易日錄得的漲幅。
美國總統特朗普表示美聯儲應降息更多次，因其他央行也降息，並表示美聯儲主席鮑威爾不知道怎麼玩這盤遊戲。
隔夜美聯儲9月如期將目標區間範圍降低25個基點至1.75%-2%，決定自9月19日起將超額準備金利率(IOER)下調30個基點至1.8%，還將隔夜回購協議的利率下調30個基點至1.70%。
隔夜美聯儲鷹派降息，但並未承諾此後將進一步實施寬鬆措施，利率預期“點陣圖”方面，從預期中值來看，年內剩餘時間及明年恐不會再降息，更多持鷹派立場的委員為那些沒有投票權的委員。不過我行仍堅持預計年內美聯儲將再降息一次，並於2020年暫停加息。
美聯儲並不想提前承諾未來將實現更多寬鬆政策，在未來貨幣政策決定方面，主席鮑威爾暗示將監測三方面，分別為全球政局及貿易不確定性，全球經濟數據表現及美國通脹數據，因此10月初的貿易協商將為下次政策決定的關鍵考量因素，我行持續預計未來四次利率決議上，美聯儲將各降息一次，當前市場尚未對此預期進行充分計價。
從美聯儲政策聲明和預測數據中，我們認為美聯儲準備好進一步放鬆政策，如果合適的話，就在未來數月內，預計美聯儲今年第四季度和明年第一季度將分別降息25個基點。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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