不要过分沉迷黄金多头，降息预期不等于进入宽松周期
关键词：宽松周期
6月26日，现货黄金连阳走势有望终结，美元指数进一步反弹，同时美联储官员发话，打压市场对美联储大幅降息的预期。之前市场认为美联储将在7月大幅度降息。但美联储官员认为降息太多过于激进。
美联储官员周二(6月25日)给市场预期降温。主席鲍威尔强调了该机构决策的独立性，不会受到总统特朗普的行政干预。
美国总统特朗普此前不断指责美联储去年多次升息是重大失误，认为美联储把事情搞砸了，并要求大幅快速降息。他周三更是扬言，我有权解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，鲍威尔根本不该把利率加到这么高的水平。
鲍威尔还指出，他和他的同事正纠结于当前经济面临的风险是否需要美联储降息。围绕美国关税的不确定性、华盛顿与贸易伙伴之间的贸易争端以及温和的通胀，美联储内部存在争论。
他表示：“许多联邦公开市场委员会成员认为，采取某种程度上更为宽松的政策的理据已经加强。但我们也注意到，货币政策不应对任何单个数据点或信心的短期波动做出过度反应。”
在上周三结束的政策会议上，美联储维持利率不变，但暗示最早将于7月开始降息。布拉德对此持反对意见，他认为疲弱的通胀和经济增长前景的不确定性为降息提供了理据。
美联储下一次政策会议将于7月30-31日举行。与此同时，决策者将密切关注本周即将在日本大阪举行的20国集团(G20)峰会。
美国6月消费者信心挫至21个月低点，因美国家庭担心近期全球贸易紧张局势升级，对企业和就业市场状况愈发悲观。5月新屋销售意外连续第二个月下滑，令经济前景进一步黯淡。
分析师指出，贸易纷争对美国本身的商业活动带来破坏，这是意想不到的后果。监于美国的经济复苏面对威胁，预料美联储于7月底小幅降息，今年累计降息50个基点，美元料保持区间波动。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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