美联储的这个信号让欧元多头充满希望
关键词：欧元多头
欧元对美元曾一度上涨至两周的高位，美联储1月决议可能释放鸽派信号，市场预期将打压美元。也有市场预测，美联储正考虑暂停缩表计划，若确认无误，美元将持续下跌。同时中国和美国之间的贸易协定能否达成也是投资者关注的焦点。
德拉基今天晚些时候将出现在欧洲议会面前，可能会重复同样的信息。任何有关加息时机的新见解或任何暗示，都将受到市场的密切关注。
不过投资者们广泛预计本周美联储将释放鸽派信号，上周有媒体报道称美联储官员正距作出何时放慢削减资产负债表的决定越来越近，这也将成为投资者评估美联储在收紧货币政策的道路上还将走多远的一个关键考虑因素。此外中美贸易局势也需持续关注。
欧元兑美元料难以突破1.15关口，没有迹象显示本周美联储1月利率决议将发出新的货币政策信号，预计汇价将仍于当前区间交投，焦点转向中美贸易谈判，短期内尚无利好美元的信号出现，不过预计最终二者将达成贸易协议，相对美元而言，欧元及人民币的受益将更大。
加拿大帝国商业银行表示，维持结构性看涨欧元兑美元，一季度目标上看1.15，三季度目标上看1.19，年底目标则指向1.22。
海外经济数据表现疲软表明欧洲央行首次加息很有可能会拖至下半年，与此前预计的年中采取行动存在偏差，尽管短线的经济活动风险偏向下行，但中期而言通胀前景已经展现出反弹的迹象，主要得益于国际原油期货价格反弹。不过即便欧洲央行推迟采取行动的时间，也不大可能大幅影响欧元兑美元表现，2019年底目标上看1.22。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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