英国有序脱欧，黄金紧随其后
关键词：英国脱欧顺利开展
11月22日，现货黄金价格进一步提升，因英国脱欧传来利好消息，英镑飙升，美元迅速扩大跌幅，黄金多头得以喘息。但美联储政策依旧是影响汇市以及金市走向的主要角色，投资者开始质疑，明年的升息次数。
据外媒报道，欧盟与英国的脱欧草案文件显示，将在未来找到担保协议的替代方案，并且双方承诺将构建“单一海关领域”，欧盟将会承认英国独立的贸易政策。双方寻求设立自贸区，并在深度监管上开展的合作。
文件还显示，经济伙伴关系应确保所有部门不征收关税、费用、收费或数量限制，双方将致力于在一定程度上自由化贸易与服务领域，自由化程度将远远超过双方在WTO所做的承诺。英国脱欧后，过渡期可以延长“一至两年”。
在达成一致的宣言草案中，英国在未来与欧盟的金融服务贸易关系上没有取得任何进展。外媒还援引英国政府消息人士称，直布罗陀问题根本没有解决，欧盟27国仍需达成一致。
不过即使与欧盟的谈判取得成果，接下来闯关英国议会并非易事。对于议会能否批准脱欧协议，市场中弥漫悲观气氛，投资者对无协议脱欧的担忧加剧，脱欧不确定性和政局不稳对英镑造成双重打击。
美联储料将在12月进行今年第四次升息，美国国内经济到目前为止运行良好。不过投资者仍开始质疑，在不会导致国内经济放缓的情况下明年可以升息的次数。
根据周二公布的一项调查，分析师的预估中值显示，美联储明年料再升息三次，到2019年年底时，联邦基金利率将来到3.00-3.25%。
上周美联储副主席克拉里达(RichardClarida)和达拉斯联储主席卡普兰(RobertStevenKaplan)就潜在的全球经济放缓表示担忧，令市场大举押注升息周期已近尾声，即使央行高级官员仍暗示未来将进一步升息。
尽管英镑日内大幅波动牵引了外汇和贵金属市场走势，但黄金和美元的中期走向仍将取决于美联储的货币收紧路径。若美联储12月修改前瞻指引令市场动摇对未来加息次数的预期，金价或大幅走升。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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