贸易局势愈发紧张，美元积蓄多头
关键词：贸易战局势
美元指数未能延续上一个交易日的上涨趋势，但是仍在95关口以上。利好非农强化了美联储年内加息两次的预期，同时特朗普可能对更多的中国进口商品加征关税，意在为美元提供支撑。
美元指数回吐上个交易日录得的涨幅，上周五(9月7日)公布的美国8月非农就业人口增加20.1万人，好于预期，薪资水平创2009年6月来新高，强化美联储年内再加息两次的预期，提振美元录得外包日线形态。
美国8月非农就业报告显示，雇佣水平强劲且薪资增长隔离，将支撑美联储延续加息进程，将于9月及12月利率决议各加息一次。
中美贸易紧张局势持续，将在未来数日主导美元走势。美国总统特朗普表示，除了2000亿美元外还可能对2670亿美元中国商品加征关税，另据悉特朗普政府还考虑在对华贸易问题上动用网络安全制裁措施。
尽管基本面依旧利好美元，但由于临近美国中期选举，美国政治风险的溢价正上升，另外全球贸易政策可能仍对美元产生双向的影响，贸易摩擦升级将利好美元，而降温则利空美元。
过去几周，投资者的注意力越来越被从新兴市场资本流出所吸引。今年到目前为止，阿根廷比索和土耳其里拉明显处于风暴的中心，与美元相比分别下跌了50%和42%。其他新兴市场货币对负面情绪的敏感性，可以用它们不同的国内基本面来解释。
对许多新兴市场货币来说，美元融资成本上升以及(或)对中美贸易战对世界经济增长影响的担忧，是今年资本外流背后的关键因素。
美元一直是主要受益者，预计将在6至9个月的时间内继续受到良好支撑，欧元兑美元将在1.12附近触底，明年下半年将进一步走高。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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