欧元最后一根救命稻草被破
近阶段由于一系列经济数据不佳和此前欧银行长德拉基释放鸽派信号等因素，欧元对美元已经连续重挫3个交易日，仍未出现止跌企稳的信号，后市欧银利率决定料或成压垮欧元的最后一根稻草。
尽管欧洲央行本周四的政策决定不会提出新的关于经济的预测，但欧银行长马里奥·德拉基很有可能在措辞中表现出更为温和的基调，这种可能性目前来看很高。这主要是因为近期数据欠佳所导致的，而部分数据和通胀低于预期的本质原因又可以归结为欧元本身。
欧元在贸易加权基础上同比增长超过9%，这代表欧元在贸易出口的地位越来越高，自然而然以欧元为计价的商品吸引力也越来越小，造成了数据不及预期这一客观事实。
因此，有理由相信德拉基将在新闻发布会上释放偏鸽的信号，即欧洲央行很可能不会那么快缩减购债规模，货币仍会处于宽松的流动环境。
而这对于现在欧元的无疑是雪上加霜，目前欧元正处于一个极其弱势超卖的区间，市场也显得异常脆弱，任何欧洲央行的措词的小的转变都可能验证市场对未来一段时间不会收紧货币政策的预期是正确的，从而给欧元带来不可承受之压。
另外，根据上周五最新发布美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，投机人士并未理会欧元区经济数据的恶化，欧元看涨头寸反而创下纪录高位。从下图中我们可以明显看到，净多头持仓出现增加至147463手，短短一周净增加了13082手，约为10分之1。
分析师说到：“我们预计美元熊市将暂告一段落，换句话说欧元牛市会陷入调整。主要原因是欧洲经济出现放缓的迹象，而美联储可能进一步收紧货币政策。对于欧元兑美元为阿里的走势，我们目前保持中性的立场，等待观望。考虑到欧洲央行可能不会在今年9月份前停止资产购买，释放货币的流动性。我们可能会以谨慎官网为主。”
欧元目前正在持续走弱，未来两个月欧元兑美元可能还要下跌6%，预计欧洲央行本周不会发布政策转变的信号。欧洲央行可能会等待6月份的经济数据，以重新审视是否加息的问题。未来几个月1.15至1.17将会是欧元兑美元的合理区间。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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