谈判多方困难，英镑上行仍有可能
分析师指出英镑价格的大幅波动表明，英镑对于英国脱欧相关事件有极高的敏感度。随着英国与欧盟对脱欧谈判的继续，将会对后续英镑的上行带来诸多风险。
分析师表示，昨日英镑价格的大幅波动表明，英镑对于英国脱欧相关事件有极高的敏感度。在英国和欧盟的第五轮谈判中，市场似乎认为英国选择“无协议脱欧”的可能性更大。稍早英国财相哈蒙德更是曾表示，谈判正处于僵局。然而，对英国“硬脱欧“的担忧迅速得到重新评估，有报道称欧盟首席谈判代表米歇尔·巴尼耶(Michel Barnier)愿意提供为期两年的脱欧过渡协议后，英镑逆转了其1%的跌幅。
这些对英镑市场来说都不是新消息；有关英国无法达成任何协议而硬脱欧进行应急计划似乎是合理的，但这不应成为市场对英镑定价的核心。它充其量只是作为尾部风险，将英镑的上行空间保持在有限的范围内。
我们将继续看到英国脱欧过渡协议的进展，通过三个渠道获得支持，特别是通过提高短期英国利率的渠道。
事实上，预计英国央行将在下周欧盟领导人峰会结束后，将向11月的“超级周四”央行会议进行叙述。在这里，我们看到了英镑汇率上行的风险，不仅是因而英国央行仍有可能将加息25个基点，而且卡尼行长还暗示，这不仅是为了加息而加息。
预计英镑兑美元将在11月英国央行会议期间迅速拉升至1.35-1.36。欧镑兑在未来几周内将保持在0.88至0.90区间内，因为欧洲央行和英国央行的政策措施可能在近期相互抵消。如果围绕英国脱欧协议的讨受到阻挠或拖延，那将可能使欧镑兑突破0.90。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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