林幽沃：非农现奇异行情 黄金四季度该何去何从
现货黄金迎来2017年第四季度，首先迎接10月的非农，而这次非农行情带来非一般的走势，实现大反转并终止了近期绵绵不断的跌势。
在非农就业人数出现负增长时，相信各位朋友都以为会出现暴涨行情，但金价还是下探至1260附近支撑，主要是市场认为飓风影响过大，导致数据不真实，而继续跟随趋势向下测试支撑。其实在非农数据中，我们也可以看到薪资水平有超预期的增长，失业率也有所下降，证明美国就业市场依然非常强劲，为美联储将加息的道路铺垫。
当晚在破位下跌至1260小时收线后，随后出现反转，吞没所有跌幅并创出日内新高，由跌转涨，最后收于1270上方，完成底部结构。那比较多人就会出现疑问，为什么会公布数据的时候不涨？原因其实在很简单，其一是飓风影响到数据的不真实性，其二是美朝的紧张关系有升温的状态，其三是之前在直播中提及到1255-60是这一次空头的中期目标。所以，这一次在非农出现的反转行情，是全球避险情绪+技术支撑到位后出现的现象。
接下来在2017年第四季度的情况比较复杂，短期上来说，美联储在12月的强烈加息预期对黄金来说是利空消息。而从中长期来看，全球发生各种事件，让避险情绪升温属于是利多消息。所以在把握节奏上尤其关键，预计11月会开始中短线炒作美联储加息事件，而在12月落地后金价将再度重回避险大环境中的升势。
短期上金价还有一定的上涨空间，但是需要关注1290-1300压力，年底前该处依然是多空争夺的重要关口，也是为2018年开始的铺垫。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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