英国“软脱欧”？没这么简单！
上周英国首相特蕾莎梅所在的保守党未能在大选中获得多数席位，令脱欧前景面临巨大的不确定性，英镑随即大幅下跌。英镑/美元一度跌破1.266，直抵英国首相梅宣布提前大选以来的七周低位。不过，由于市场臆测大选结果可能令英国迈向“软脱欧”(即不退出欧洲单一市场)，这在一定程度上限制了英镑的跌势。
分析师表示，英国的大选产生了更为弱势的政府面临未来的退欧谈判，英镑被更大的政治不确定性所裹挟，可能会进一步下滑。尽管在上周四的投票之后，对所谓“更软性”脱欧可能性的揣测，，需要看到更多证据表明特蕾莎梅政府的立场发生变化，才能转向看好英镑。
分析师称，对于更软性脱欧揣测的兴起，是在英国大选结果出炉之后英镑没有更急剧下跌的理由之一。不过，由于政治不确定性的加剧，以及退欧谈判有可能变得更为复杂的前景，近期风险更倾向于英镑下行。需要看到具体证据浮出水面，证明转向更软性的脱欧立场，才会考虑更为看好英镑的前景。
分析师指出，保守党曾希望采取相当强硬的脱欧路线，现在英国是否还会遵循那样的路线还不清楚。退欧立场软化，或者退欧过程更加混乱，二者的可能性均大增。任何更软性退欧的可能性，终将利好英镑，尽管短期前景相当不确定，不过英镑因而会负有较高的风险溢价。
英国很可能在未来几个月内陷入严重的政治瘫痪，这意味着破坏性脱欧的风险正在上升。同时，所有这一切都会导致英国央行维持政策不变，而美联储和欧洲央行则收紧政策，令利差进一步不利英镑。”
分析师也认为，英国大选结果不仅提高了硬脱欧的可能性，也加大了有序过渡的不确定性。
他强调，硬脱欧几成定局，鉴于首相特蕾莎梅实力削弱，所以保守党内强硬的欧元怀疑论者能够绑架首相，推进硬脱欧。预计英镑面临重大下行风险，预计欧元/英镑将迅速升破0.90英镑，甚至上看0.95。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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