欧洲政治风云变幻引爆避险
欧洲政治形势风起云涌。法国和德国大选不确定性骤然升温，加剧了市场对欧洲政治局势的担忧，避险黄金、日元以及德美国债周一(2月6日)迎来“大狂欢”，而欧洲股市与欧元则成为最大输家。
法国极右翼民族阵线主席玛琳娜·勒庞展开竞选活动，誓言对抗全球化及带领法国退出欧元区。
受特朗普在美国当选以及英国退欧公投推动，勒庞的反移民、反欧盟党派也希望借助法国国内类似的不满情绪。
勒庞周末公布了总统竞选纲领，承诺大幅限制移民、使法国退出欧元区，并对欧盟身份举行公投。
据法新社报道，卷入重大吃空饷丑闻的法国总统候选人菲永日内稍晚将在巴黎竞选总部举行一次新闻发布会。许多交易员预计他将宣布辞职，不过随后路透社报道称，菲永可能会就令其民调直线下降的吃空饷丑闻做出“反击”举措。
菲永随后在新闻发布会上回应妻子薪资丑闻，称其妻子的薪资完全合法。他还表示将在周一晚些时候公布其妻子的薪资细节。
法国民调机构OpinionWay最新民调结果显示，第一轮投票中勒庞支持率为26%，马克龙支持率为23%，菲永支持率为20%。
标普的一名高管告诉《经济学人》，如果勒庞选举获胜后，法国单方将欧元计价承付款项兑换成新法郎，法国将对其主权债务违约。
市场人士指出，勒庞在民调中的强势表现已经让投资人感到不安，这也直接体现在全球市场的避险资产走势上面…
除了法国大选不确定性加剧之外，德国总理默克尔面对的竞选形势愈加严峻，这无疑也加剧了市场的抛售压力。
据德国图片报报道，INSA民调显示德国中左翼阵营社民党支持率领先于默克尔领导的基民盟。
受此影响，欧洲经济政策不确定性飙升…
上周，德国主权风险攀升至英国脱欧以来最高水平。
由于欧洲大选焦虑情绪蔓延，市场避险情绪卷土重来，风险资产遭到抛售，而避险日元、黄金以及国债则受到青睐。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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