法国大选或引脱欧担忧，法德国债利差创4年新高
2月7日，法国10年期国债较德债收益率利差扩大至2012年11月以来最高水平，因投资者担心极右翼在法国大选中获胜并带领法国脱离欧盟。
因紧张的投资者在低风险的德债中寻求避险，盘初法国10年期国债与可比德债收益率之差扩至78个基点。
尽管盘中收益率差有所缩小，但仍接近多年高位。
有分析师称，如果勒庞赢得法国大选，法国和德国10年期国债收益率差可能扩阔至200个基点。
法国的政治风险上升，意味着法国和德国国债之间的关联性走弱，而法国与低评级的意大利国债的关联性加强，也就是说，法国国债走势趋同于二线国家国债。
尽管法国极右翼民族阵线主席玛琳娜·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）看来肯定能进入5月7日的第二轮选举，但民调显示无论面对哪位竞争对手，她都无法获胜。
贝莱德(Blackrock)全球首席投资策略师Richard Turnill表示，欧洲市场消化的今年法国和德国大选的政治风险被过分夸大了。
这种情绪使压制法国10年期国债收益率跌4个基点至1.1%，与德国同比国债收益率缩小至73个基点。
希腊两年期国债收益率升穿10%，为6月来首次，因对欧盟和国际货币基金组织(IMF)是否能就第三批救助达成一致的担忧加剧。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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