美联储罗森格伦：美国非常接近充分就业
美国波士顿联储主席罗森格伦上周五(10月14日)表示，美国非常接近充分就业，根据该地区联储对劳动力市场的预期，2017年底前美国失业率可能跌至4.5%。
罗森格伦是2016年联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的投票委员。他是今年9月会议投票反对维持利率不变的三位票委之一。
罗森格伦称，他担心失业率下降太多，这会导致美联储不得不加快收紧政策的脚步，令经济扩张期限缩短。
同时，他希望美联储能够缓慢、逐渐地加息，但等待的时间越长，就不得不越快加息。
尽管罗森格伦不愿详谈及未来利率路径，但和其本身及市场预期相比，他认为美联储2017年可能会不得不更快地加息。
另一方面，罗森格伦指出，美联储可能考虑调整其资产负债表中的债券组成，以便推升处于历史低点的10年期国债收益率和商业地产资本化率。
他表示，“出于金融稳定担忧，资产负债表的组成可能会调整，以使收益率曲线变陡。”
此外，罗森格伦认为，缓慢的GDP增长加上失业快速下降，是经济复苏的明显难题之一。鉴于上次衰退的严重性，需要进一步放松货币政策并不意外，但令人意外的是利率依然如此之低。
他还补充道，10年期美国债实际回报率为负值，表明人们对美国和全球经济增长前景以及决策部门抵消疲软增长的能力缺乏信心。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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