本周美联储FOMC决议五大关注要点
关键字:本周美联储FOMC决议五大关注要点
据外媒报道,美国联邦储备委员会已明确表示,将不会在周三结束的为期两天的政策会议上开始加息,但大家也不要指望美联储会就2006年以来首轮加息的时间点给出任何明确信号。
美联储主席耶伦(Janet Yellen)将不会在此次政策会议结束后召开新闻发布会,美联储官员们也不会发布新的经济预期。因此,投资者能够从此次会议上获得有关美联储想法的仅有新线索将是定于美东时间周三下午2点公布的声明。美联储将可能重申,在就业市场出现更多改善且美联储对通胀将向2%目标攀升较有把握之前,美联储不会开始上调借款成本。
以下为此次美联储会议的五大看点:
1. 经济
美联储官员会如何描述冬季美国经济增长放缓的现象?他们是否会将冬季经济放缓主要或部分归因于天气等临时性因素吗?一些美联储官员在最近发表的讲话中对于经济强劲回升的可能性表达了乐观态度,而其他一些官员则持谨慎态度。
2. 劳动力市场
美联储官员会对近期招聘活动放缓做怎样的界定?美国劳工部公布的数据显示,3月份就业增长失去动能,表现不及1月和2月时的预期。美联储官员的态度将是乐观还是担忧?他们会认为这只是短期的轻微疲软现象,还是认为这或许预示着可能出现更严重的问题?
3.通胀
在过去近三年中,美国通胀率一直低于美联储的通胀目标,但美联储官员在今年3月份表示,仍预计随着时间的推移,通胀将向2%的目标水平逐步攀升。他们可能会坚持这一看法。不过,他们可能会指出,在经历了几个月的下滑后,通胀和油价近期均已企稳。
4.通胀预期
美联储官员可能会指出,在今年早些时候出现回落后,市场的通胀预期指标已出现逆转。这也许会给对持续低于目标的通胀率感到不安的美联储官员带来些许安慰。
5.美元
美元过去几个月的升值抑制了美国出口并导致进口价格下跌,进而损害了经济增长。在3月份政策声明中,美联储官员没有明确提到美元,但似乎隐晦地提及了美元,称“能源价格下跌和其他一些因素给通胀带来了暂时的影响”。这一次他们会提到美元吗?
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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