市场预计黄金产量将于2015年内到顶
关键字：市场预计黄金产量将于2015年内到顶
市场上越来越多的观测认为全球黄金产量将在2015～16年触顶。矿山企业一直随着金价上涨而进行增产，但由于当前黄金价格趋于下滑所导致的收益恶化，矿山企业对开发新矿山开始持慎重态度。从中长期来看，黄金产量触顶下滑的可能性大幅增加。一方面，随着全球黄金产量的减少，以低成本立足的中国中小矿山企业似乎开始在力争扩大市场份额。
国际黄金调查机构世界黄金协会（World Gold Council，简称WGC）发布的报告显示，2014年的全球黄金产量较去年同比增长2%，达到3114吨。连续6年出现增长，产量创历史新高。不过，报告又指出：“今后矿山项目的产量将减少，预计在2015年触顶”。世界黄金协会是由全球的矿山企业出资成立的机构。这显示出黄金生产商已自行释放出减产的信号。
高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group）也在2015年3月提出“2015年黄金产量将达到峰值”，预计黄金产量将转为减少。依据是其推测可开采黄金在20年后将枯竭。汤森路透也在2015年4月发布的年度报告中指出：“2015年（矿山企业的）生产计划将减少，产量无太大变化”。
到目前为止，全球黄金的开采总量达到17.7万吨，几乎可以装满3.5个标准奥运会用游泳池。金矿在1990年代中期迎来发现的高峰。通常一座金矿在开采20年后达到产量峰值，之后的产量会越来越少。因此认为黄金产量将减少的观点突然甚嚣尘上。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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