丹麦央行两周内第三次降息
关键词：丹麦央行年内第三次降息
哥本哈根1月29日 – 丹麦央行两周内第三次降息，利率再创历史新低；此前该央行进行市场干预，力图将丹麦克朗兑欧元汇率控制在窄幅区间内。
丹麦央行将定期存单(certificate of deposit)利率由负0.35%调降至负0.50%，自上周一以来已累计降息45个基点。
尽管上周分析师就预测，丹麦央行已采取的行动可能不足以令克朗走贬，但几乎没人料到下一次降息来得这么快，尤其是在丹麦利率低于欧元区指标利率负0.2%水平的情况下–这使克朗吸引力较欧元为低。
分析师曾称，丹麦央行在动用100至150亿克朗干预汇市后，可能倾向于使用利率工具。
“此举已抬高丹麦克朗的持有成本，因此本币(升值)压力料将减小，但降息是否足以切断流向市场的‘动能’，目前仍不确定，”丹麦丹斯克银行首席分析师Steen Bocian在研究报告中称。
由于克朗兑欧元不断冲击交易区间上限，丹麦央行自去年9月以来每月均干预汇市，仅12月除外。
但在瑞士央行弃守瑞郎兑欧元上限后，丹麦克朗的买盘加剧。瑞士央行亦将利率下调至负0.75%。一些分析师认为，丹麦央行可能会降息更多。
“(央行)行动目的是打压货币市场利率，降低持有丹麦克朗的吸引力，”一央行发言人称。“我们预计市场会出现反应，所以我们不需要干预汇市，克朗就将走贬。”
丹麦克朗兑欧元从降息前的7.4440降至7.4452，稍后反弹至7.4438。
瑞典商业银行(Handelsbanken)首席经济分析师Jes Asmussen估计，丹麦央行在1月投入创纪录的1,000亿丹麦克朗，以维持克朗兑欧元的联系汇率。
基于改革式欧洲汇率机制(ERM2)，丹麦同意将克朗兑欧元维持在7.46038克朗上下浮动2.25%区间内，而实际上，央行一直维持汇率在上下0.50%这一更窄区间内。
在瑞士央行采取行动后不久，一些市场人士揣测丹麦央行也将取消联系汇率，尽管在政治和商业领域，联系汇率机制非常受欢迎。
北欧联合银行(Nordea)全球首席经济分析师Helge Pedersen称，丹麦央行实际上强化了丹麦对这一政策“坚定不移的”承诺。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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