FED决议在即美元连跌两日 投行依旧看涨
关键词：联储决议
美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)将在北京时间周四凌晨02:00公布政策声明。届时不会更新经济预测和利率预估，美联储主席耶伦也没有计划对媒体发言，投资者只能仔细研究声明稿，从中寻找政策走向的线索。
但是在此之前，美元指数却是经历的一场数据的洗礼。日内公布了一系列的美国数据，包括美国耐用品订单、S&P/CS20个大城市房价指数和谘商会消费者信心指数等。这些数据好坏不一，美元指数下滑后反弹幅度受限，目前交投于近期盘整区间的低端。
不过，尽管美元连跌两日，但多数华尔街投行依旧看好利率决议后的美元走势。
摩根士丹利本周一仍保持看多美元的观点，美债收益率的下降是资金流入的结果，并非是美国储蓄率上升所导致的。和1996/98年类似，预计美债收益率将不再对外汇市场的融资交易构成指引性作用。生产能力过剩、过度借贷、通缩，多数国家面临这些问题，因而多数货币也走低，这也将对美元构成支撑。美联储决议、美国三季度GDP是本周的市场焦点。
美银美林周二则预计美联储将在本周的会议将宣布第三轮量化宽松(QE3)于10月完结。不过，美联储也将在政策声明中释放出不急于升息的信号，整体措辞料偏向中性，收益率曲线的走平对美元构成利好，因此美元将延续强势。
同时美银美林认为，金价跌破了1241到1252美元/盎司的阻力水平，这表明本月至今修正的上涨已经结束，更大的空头趋势再次出现。而自1255美元/盎司下跌至今的跌势还没有完成，可能还要几个交易日金价才会有所回升。空头应当耐心等待。”
高盛集团日前指出，纵观美元指数和欧元/美元的走势，美元可能正在酝酿新一轮爆发式行情。美元指数正在考验前期区间顶部，7月高点区域84.53/10的支撑显示出十足的韧性，暗示美元的多头动能依旧充沛。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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