美国经济向好打压黄金
关键词：美联储加息
近日，英国巴克莱银行发布报告称，经济指标显示美国经济已经扭转第一季度的疲弱态势，近期的CPI和个人消费支出通胀指标呈现升势，应会促使美联储不久承认在明年6月首次加息的必要性。
在全球展望报告中，美国国债收益率曲线将全面上行，而大多十国集团货币短期利率处于或接近历史低点(欧元、日元和瑞郎)，或已大致反映了升息前景(澳元、纽元和英镑)；预计美元对其他G10国家货币中期上涨，以贸易加权计，今年年底前上涨5%，到明年年中上涨6%。
交易员目前预计美联储决策者在2015年6月前加息的几率为45%，高于月初时预计的35%。
美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，美国5月美联储所青睐的价格指标年率上升1.8%，创下2012年10月来最大升幅。该指数4月时上升1.6%。5月核心PCE物价指数月增0.2%，年增1.5%，创下2013年2月来最大涨幅。两项指标正进一步接近美联储2%的目标。这是美联储所青睐的价格指标。
巴克莱报告显示，坚信欧洲央行已经改弦更张，致力于采取必要措施提振通胀； 利率下降将压制欧元，建议卖出欧元兑日元，以及兑美元和英镑。
巴克莱建议投资者继续持有以欧元为融资货币的新兴市场货币套利交易，最青睐的套利交易货币是巴西雷亚尔，其次是印尼盾和波兰兹罗提。
巴克莱并表示，英国央行料将成为G10中率先加息的央行之一，美元和英元的走强恐对金价有所打压。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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