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4.8国际现货黄金价格走势分析(2014)

关键字:4.8国际现货黄金价格走势分析(2014)

【行情回顾】

因4月4日美国劳工部统计的3月美国非农就业人数报告略低于预期,国际现货黄金价格于4月4日成功上穿1300关键阻力位,最高位录得1306.55,4月7日金价整日小幅回落,在1300位置附近窄幅调整,收盘价1296.8美元,日跌6.2美元,国际银价则继周五晚盘冲高回落后周一回吐所有涨势,本日亚市开盘轻微反弹。

【基本面分析】

从昨日市场整体情况来看,现货黄金行情不及预期的非农数据继续发酵,美股、美元、美债收益率均延续了周五的跌势。然而黄金涨势则未能持续,在上周五出现了3月12日最大上涨后,昨日回吐部分涨幅。虽然美国非农的影响目前对于黄金来说已经显得较为有限,但未来短期内将有可能出现更大的风险事件,并可能通过推高避险情绪而提振黄金。

大田分析师认为,美国经济继续成为近期推动金价的主要因素,而美联储和欧洲央行的货币政策则会长期影响金价。

3月31日,乌克兰东部爆发了过去一个月以来最严重的骚乱,亲俄民众占领了三个城市的地区政府大楼──顿涅茨克、哈尔科夫及卢甘斯克。目前顿涅茨克抗议者已宣布成立“顿涅茨克人民共和国”,并寻求俄罗斯军队保护。目前整个事件的焦点将是俄罗斯方面对乌克兰东部抗议活动的回应,包括官方的发言以及潜在的军事活动。若俄罗斯提高黄金储备或动乱局面发酵,则黄金的避险属性再现,金价将利好。

【技术分析】

日线图上金价于亚盘时段止住4月7日跌幅,小时图上反复测试1300阻力位,5日RSI值为66.62,MACD自临界点向上,目前走势尚未明朗。

本日阻力位为上周五最高1307,视乎本日能否上破,建议投资者持有观望。

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