中金公司下调中国2014年GDP预估至7.3%
关键字：中国GDP
中金公司发表研究报告表示，基于中国经济下行压力和政策以调结构为重的判断，将2014年GDP增速预测从7.6%下调至7.3%，CPI和PPI预测从3.1%和0%下调至2.5%和-1.0%。报告认为，大陆当前经济增长动能减弱，结构改革与防控金融风险在短期内对总需求的抑制作用为主导因素。调结构对短期总需求存在压制，经济增长将承受下行压力。防控金融风险限制了货币政策放松空间，同时，利率市场化和汇率双向波动加大了风险溢价，不利于企业融资成本的下降。从中国最高层对经济处于「三期」迭加(经济增长速度换挡期、结构调整阵痛期、前期刺激政策消化期)」的基本判断来看，当前中国宏观调控模式将不同于以往。政府不会片面追求GDP增长，而是考虑充分就业、环保、结构调整、防控金融风险等多方面因素。
报告预计，只要经济尚未显露系统性风险，中国政府就不会采取大力道的货币放松，宏观逆周期操作将主要依赖财政政策，货币政策仅限于微调。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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