2.6国际现货黄金价格走势分析（2014）
关键字：2.6国际现货黄金价格走势分析（2014）
【行情回顾】
纽盘开市阶段，国际现货黄金价格刷新日内高点1274美元，因美国最新出炉的1月ADP就业数据低于预期，打压投资者对1月非农报告的乐观预期，美元走弱提振黄金，但金价短暂上涨后迅速回落。
【基本面分析】
长期投资者减持黄金ETF的速度继续放缓，官方数据显示SPDR黄金ETF持仓量在1月份仅下降5.06吨，创2013年以来第二低降幅，仅次于去年8月（减少0.02吨）。周二投资者更增持3.89吨黄金，推动SPDR持仓量回升至797.05吨。美联储依旧延续温和与渐进式的QE削减步伐，但投资者对黄金前景的信心不但没有下降反而有所改善，似乎暗示美联储货币政策预期已经不再是影响黄金价格的重要因素。
美国实际利率（使用通胀保值债券TIPS到期收益率衡量）短期内有所下降，5年期实际利率降至-0.26%，10年期实际利率降至0.47%，虽然实际利率仍显著高于2013水平，但与2014年初相比则明显回落。实际利率是持有黄金的机会成本，在长期中显著影响黄金走势（负相关）。尽管美国短期经济数据表现不佳，如12月耐用品订单和个人收入大幅下滑，1月ISM制造业指数上升0.1%至99.4，连续数月持续改善，谘商会报告指出领先指标全面回升暗示美国经济有望在2014年上半年进一步复苏，若实际利率在短暂回落后有望重新上升，则实际利率可持续回落，可能对金价构成严峻的中期（6-12个月）下行阻力。然而若经济复苏趋势意外中断，则实际利率可能持续回落并推动金价强劲上涨。
【技术分析】
金价确认有效上破8月末下行趋势线，或打开进一步反弹空间，目前多头正在测试100日均线，上破则指向1300和200日均线1311。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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