新兴货币汇率升 美公债殖利率低点反弹
关键字：新兴货币汇率、美公债殖利率
土耳其里拉、南非币与巴西币这些高风险的资产略为止稳让投资人松口气,激励美国10年期公债殖利率从三个月低点强弹。
Bloomberg Bond Trader报价显示,纽约债市4日尾盘时,美国10年期公债殖利率劲扬5个基点至2.63%;2月3日盘中最低一度跌至2.568%、创2013年11月1日以来新低。债券价格与殖利率呈现反向走势。
南非币、土耳其里拉4日出现反弹走势。嘉实XQ全球赢家系统报价显示,纽约汇市4日尾盘时,美元兑南非币挫贬1.47%至11.0879;美元兑土耳其里拉重贬2.2%至2.2346;美元兑巴西里拉挫贬1.42%至2.4005。
彭博社报导,Mitsubishi UFJ Securities USA Inc.资深公债交易员Thomas Roth警告,股市、债市已来到超卖、超买区,随时都可能出现反转,投资人必须谨慎行事。美国银行利率策略师Brian Smedley更指出,美国货币市场并无吃紧现象;事实上,系统中的现金还太多,如何让短期资产维持低利率反而是大问题。
部分投资人认为,债券价格的涨幅已过高,殖利率可能会再度上扬,倘若美国公布的经济报告能够纾解市场忧心情绪,那么债市恐怕会再度受到打击。美国劳工部预定要在本周五(2月7日)公布1月份就业报告。华尔街日报报导,经济学家预期1月新增就业人数将达189,000人,高于前月的74,000人。
不过,太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)共同投资长葛洛斯(Bill Gross)4日在接受彭博电视“Market Makers”专访时仍表示,他会持续买进美国公债,其中4-5年期的债种最佳。他预估,新上任的联准会(FED)主席叶伦(Janet Yellen)会继续将联邦基金利率维持在0-0.25%。Bloomberg Bond Trader报价显示,美国5年期公债殖利率2月4日上升3个基点至1.47%,2月3日一度下挫至1.43%、创去年12月5日以来新低。
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