1.20国际现货黄金价格走势分析（2014）
关键字：1.20国际现货黄金价格走势分析（2014）
【行情回顾】
欧洲时段，美国房产数据表现不佳，汇市和商品市场反应平淡，黄金小幅上涨测试1250美元，白银回落企稳20/50日均线，美铜延续区间震荡；ICE美元指数继续在81整数字附近震荡整理，美10年期国债收益率小幅下滑1.5基点至2.832%。
【基本面】
美国12月新屋开工下降9.8%至99.9万，12月营建许可下降3.0%至98.6万，均低于市场预期。尽管12月数据意外下滑，但2013年月均新屋开工仍升至92.34万，月均营建许可则升至97.47万，均创2007年以来最高水平，继续显示房地产市场强劲复苏。新屋开工和营建许可被视为美国房产市场的领先指标。短期内数据对市场的影响似乎有所减弱，好于预期的数据未能推动美元强劲上行，低于预期的结果也难以打压美元下跌，ICE美元指数短期在80.50-81.40区间震荡。美元对黄金的指引作用也比较微弱，金价在1230-1255窄幅整理，尽管从12月末以来金价从最低点反弹幅度已经接近70美元，但中短期反弹空间仍不明朗，日图价格尚未突破8月末下行趋势线，建议以此作为短期走势分水岭，若未来2-3周金价有效上破下行趋势线，则确认打开上行空间，否则将面临再度回落的风险。
12月非农低于预期已经基本被市场消化，单月数据不足以显著打压投资者对美国经济和就业前景的乐观信心，30天联邦基金期货隐含利率显示，市场参与者对美联储撤出宽松的预期依旧居高不下，这有望在短期内继续为美元提供支持，密切关注ICE美元指数能否持续走强并上破长期关键阻力82.0，只有上破才能在技术上逆转2013年7月以来的中期下行趋势。下周市场缺乏重要数据和风险事件推动，汇市和商品市场可能延续本周震荡行情。
【技术分析】
金价回落企稳10/50日均线，时段内再度走高，后市有望上行测试8月末下行趋势线1265-1270，上破将打开进一步上行空间。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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