盛宝银行：2014年黄金市场有下跌风险
关键字：黄金市场
2014前商品市场已经连续三年表现不如股市了，道琼斯瑞银商品指数自2011年来就显示负回报，尤其是去年。商品价格在2008年金融危机前强劲上涨，这也是目前疲软的原因。
2013年的大宗商品中，黄金的糟糕表现是比较突出，金价在连续13年上涨后第一次年度下跌。
Ole Hansen认为进入2014年对黄金来说，由于有美联储继续缩减以及债券收益率上涨，因此黄金仍然有下跌的风险。
Hansen称投资者应关注黄金ETF的流入来看投资情绪是否有变化，还应关注的是对冲基金带来的期货期权的流动。2013年黄金ETF的大量流出也是黄金市场的一大特征，整年流出量超过了此前三年的流入量。
因此Hansen，我们对第一季度持中性偏空的观点，因为美联储的缩减会带来不利倾向，也会使得动量投资者们继续看空。预期第一季度黄金平均价格在1225美元/盎司，有再下降的风险。
此外Hansen称一旦金价跌破去年6月1180.50美元/盎司的低点，就可能跌向1088美元/盎司。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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