12.20黄金价格走势分析（2013）
关键字：
行情分析：欧洲时段，黄金承压走低测试1200整数字，ICE美元指数反弹至80.80，后市有望进一步测试81，银价指向月初低点18.90。
【基本面】
美联储12月利率决议尘埃落定，FOMC决定将月度资产购买规模削减100亿至750亿美元，其中抵押贷款支持证券 (MBS) 和美国国债分别削减50亿美元。QE削减规模相对温和，符合此前部分投资者推测，该结果并未“超出”市场预期。决议后市场宽幅震荡，美元指数最终实现较强反弹，贵金属和非美货币普遍承压下跌，然而美国10年期国债收益率仅小幅上升至2.89%。美联储对经济前景更加乐观，货币政策委员会同时下调失业率和通货膨胀预期，伯南克在新闻发布会上表示，未来QE削减路径并没有预先设定而是继续取决于经济数据，这意味着若美国通胀进一步下滑，美联储可能暂停撤出宽松步伐，相反若美国经济复苏动能继续加强，则美联储可能加快QE削减的速度。
温和削减QE能否逆转美元走势 (7月至今ICE美元指数处于下行趋势) 是核心问题，在连续五周震荡下行后美元指数在过去两个交易日录得上涨，利率决议到底是推动美元反弹修正的催化剂还是逆转中期趋势的里程碑目前仍难以得出准确的答案 ，后市需要继续关注ICE美元指数能否上破81和长期阻力位81.50-81.80区间，只有有效上破才有望逆转中期下行。金价表现相对疲软，时段内进一步跌破月初低点1210，目前日图价格暂时企稳1200整数字，若下破则可能测试6月低点1180，关注1180-1210区间能否提供有效阻力，若黄金在该区间企稳则可能逐渐形成中短期底部，若击穿1180则无疑再度打开大幅下行空间。
【技术分析】
金价短期一直受阻10/20日均线，时段内下跌测试1200整数字，更下方阻力是1180，下破则打开大幅下行空间。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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