高盛：明年3月前美联储不会减码
关键字：美联储缩减量化宽松规模
高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席经济学家Jan Hatzius周五(12月6日)接受媒体采访时表示，“由于美国财政负荷将在明年放缓，预计2014年美国经济将继续稳定增长。同时，预计明年的月度非农就业增数也会像周五(12月6日)公布的11月非农一样维持较高的水平。”
Hatzius指出，“明年非农的月度增数将维持在22.5万人左右，不过尽管众多迹象显示美国经济复苏强劲，但我不认为美联储会在明年3月前缩减QE规模，即便有，也是小规模的缩减。事实上，鉴于目前市场以及通胀的水平，美联储仍希望在可预见的未来维持宽松政策。”
Hatzius预计2014年美国经济增速将为2.9%，2015年将加速至3.2%，2016及2017年增速均为3%。同时，欧洲和日本的经济增速也会加快，但整体不及美国。
对于美联储何时开始缩减QE的问题，Hatzius补充道，“现在依然不能确定失业率降至什么水平才能令美联储开始缩减QE，可能美联储政策制定者自己都没有一致看法。另外，至少短期来看，我认为美联储不会市场透露有关失业率门槛更清晰的指引。”
美联储将在12月17-18日召开下次FOMC会议，此前美联储曾提到在做出决定前需关注通胀门槛，这意味着虽然当前就业市场有所改善，但不足以令美联储12月缩减QE。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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