荷兰银行：黄金现货行情颓势未结束
关键字：黄金现货行情
荷兰银行伊恩•坎贝尔在为路透社的撰文中称，金价的颓势还没有结束。市场对美联储削减刺激计划的预期使金价从2011年高点下跌35%至每盎司不到1250美元。而当美联储真正开始减少购债规模时，投资者将继续撤离。金价的支撑只能在于市场对珠宝交易的需求。
世界黄金协会的数据显示，2013年第3季度，投资者对黄金的需求骤减了56%。黄金ETF资金净流出达到51亿美元，二季度流出为183亿美元。但赎回速度的放缓并不乐观：世界上最大的ETF基金，SPDR Gold三季度末持有黄金量依旧比2008年中期多41%。
美联储退出QE形势下避险债券收益率的攀升，持有黄金的机会成本将持续上升，这也将继续促使投资者撤离。有关支撑金价的其他因素中包括技术需求稳定在每年约400公吨。全球央行方面在黄金的需求并不稳定。自2009年来，珠宝需求在高金价的压力下，平均每年以1927公吨的数量减少，2003-2008年间下降了22%。今年在中国市场的拉动下，需求有轻微提高。这种现象也可以被看做是东方崛起的希望。但目前来看，今年的整体需求预计将为2009年金价首次突破1000美元/盎司以来的最低值。金价可能再次突破这一数字，只不过这次的运动方向是朝下。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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