美经济复苏缓慢 市场预期Fed将推迟削减QE
关键字：美国经济、Fed、QE
在美国经济复苏速度可能过缓、不足以让联储局(FED)于今(2013)年减码量化宽松货币政策(QE)的预期下，10年期公债殖利率25日再度下跌。公债价格与殖利率呈现反向走势。根据Bloomberg Bond Trader报价，纽约债市25日尾盘时，10年期公债殖利率下跌1个基点至2.51%；前(23)日盘中最低一度跌至2.47%，创7月22日以来新低。10年期公债殖利率过去一周以来总计下跌了7个基点。美国政府10月份关门16天，让消费者信心节节败退，路透社/密歇根大学25日公布的消费者信心指数创近10个月新低，10月份终值由前月的77.5下滑至73.2(初值为75.2)，低于彭博社调查预估的75。除了消费者信心疲弱外，9月美国非农业就业人数仅较前月增加14.8万人、低于路透社调查经济学家平均预估的18万人增幅，也显示经济在政府关门前，成长力道就已不如市场预期。
联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)将在10月29-30日召开货币政策会议，由于经济成长力道疲软，FED可能会放弃在今年减码QE的打算，这也推升了公债价格。华尔街日报报导，根据CRT Capital LLC在21日进行的调查，仅10%的受访者预估FOMC会在12月的会议上决定减码QE，另有63%的受访者认为QE减码时间可能会落在明年3月、甚至更晚。
美国财政部来周预定要拍卖960亿美元的公债，分别于10月28日拍卖320亿美元2年期公债、10月29日拍卖350亿美元5年期公债，并于10月30日拍卖290亿美元7年期公债，而供给增加可能会压抑债券价格的走势。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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