Fed提前执行新巴塞尔协议 公债殖利率上涨
关键字：新巴塞尔协议、美国公债殖利率
美国10年期公债殖利率在昨(23)日跌破2.5%后，今(24)日从连日来的疲软走势中略为反弹。公债价格与殖利率呈现反向走势。根据Bloomberg Bond Trader报价，纽约债市24日尾盘时，10年期公债殖利率上涨2个基点至2.52%；昨日盘中最低一度跌至2.47%，创7月22日以来新低。10年期公债殖利率本周已下跌了6个基点。
随着美国上周初次申请失业救济金人数高于预期、整体经济成长牛步，美国公债价格本周将有望收涨。彭博社报导，联储局(FED)考虑要求美国前几大银行提前执行新巴塞尔协议(Basel III)规定的流动性覆盖率(liquidity coverage ratio)，使银行持有的现金和容易出售的资产能在信贷枯竭时支撑30天。
根据报导，上述方案对总资产超过2,500亿美元的银行最为严苛，而FED考虑在2017年开始全面执行，比新巴塞尔协议设定的最后期限早了两年。这项新规定有望支撑公债的需求。彭博美国公债指数(Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index)显示，公债本(10)月以来的投资报酬率为0.7%，而今年以来的亏损也因此缩减至1.8%。此外，彭博全球已开发主权债券指数(Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index)10月以来则上涨1.5%，进而将今年以来的亏损缩减至1.9%。联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)将在10月29-30日召开货币政策会议。
华尔街日报报导，根据CRT Capital LLC在21日进行的调查，仅10%的受访者预估FOMC会在12月的会议上决定减码QE，另有63%的受访者认为QE减码时间可能会落在明年3月、甚至更晚。美国财政部下周预定要拍卖960亿美元的公债，供给增加可能会压抑债券价格的走势。不过，财政部今日标售70亿美元30年期抗通膨债券(Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, TIPS)时，象征买气的认购比率(bid-to-cover ratio)多达2.76倍，创2012年10月以来新高，显示有部分投资人已开始等着进场。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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