市场预期QE减码延后 债券殖利率走软
关键字：QE减码、美国债券殖利率
受美国政府关门冲击经济成长、联储局(FED)可能会因此将量化宽松货币政策(QE)减码时机延后至明(2014)年的影响，美国长天期公债殖利率10月17日续挫，而国库券殖利率则在短期违约风险解除的带动下回落至正常水位。这是国会打破协商僵局、同意让政府于10月17日重启并暂除举债上限以来，债券殖利率连续第2日走软。
道琼社报导，根据Tradeweb报价，纽约债市17日尾盘时，10年期公债殖利率下跌7.7个基点至2.594%；30年期公债殖利率下跌6.3个基点至3.662%。此外，将在11月14日到期的国库券殖利率也从周二(15日)、周三(16日)的0.33%、0.147%回落至0.015%。
立场偏向鸽派的芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁Charles Evans 17日在威斯康星州Madison郡发表演讲时指出，由于政府关门导致一系列经济数据无法如期出炉，因此FED应该延后QE的减码时机。他说，只有从数据才能看出美国经济的进展，而整体货币政策应该会在未来一段时间内维持高度宽松的立场。Evans今年在联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)拥有对货币政策的投票权。
有「债券天王」美誉的全球最大债券基金操盘手葛洛斯(Bill Gross)16日在接受CNBC节目「Street Signs」专访时也表示，美国的国内生产毛额(GDP)可能会因为本次预算争议而萎缩2-3成，而FED在下次的货币政策会议上也许会对减码QE采取观望态度。他并指出，FED下任主席叶伦(Janet Yellen)应该会在「前瞻性指引」(forward guidance)中宣示，她计划将0-0.25%的联邦基金利率维持到2015年底、甚至是2016年。
MarketWatch报导，根据债信机构标准普尔(Standard & Poor`s)16日的估算，美国政府本次部份停摆已让第4季GDP成长率缩减至少0.6个百分点、相当于24亿美元。
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受美国政府关门冲击经济成长、联储局(FED)可能会因此将量化宽松货币政策(QE)减码时机延后至明(2014)年的影响，美国长天期公债殖利率10月17日续挫，而国库券殖利率则在短期违约风
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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