王垣鑫：金價震盪格局難掩疲態，非農或是方向助力推手
導語：今日晚間美盤將公佈一月一度的非農數據。5月份金價正處於大級別的震盪回落過程當中，雖然在非農數據公佈之後現貨黃金價格短時間內劇烈震盪，不過後市未能有效站穩隨即重新回歸原本的震盪下跌走勢當中。雖然在5月份中旬金價暫時止住跌勢並出現一定幅度的反彈，但到近期反彈走勢明顯放緩，如果缺乏進一步上升動力的話，後市行情或將重新回歸弱勢。
大田環球貴金屬提示：2022年6月公佈的為2021年5月非農數據。
- 市場基本面
美聯儲公佈利率決議加息50個基點。
美聯儲6月加息50個基點的概率為96.1%。
- 數據分析
美國勞工部5月6日公佈的數據顯示，美國4月失業率維持在3.6%的水準，非農部門新增就業人數僅為42.8萬，較市場普遍預期的38萬數據要多。本次市場預計失業率將小幅走低至3.5%，非農部門新增就業增加人數將大幅縮減至32.5萬。
- 技術面走勢
近段時間金價已經完成了自2070一線高位回落至起漲點1790一線位置下方的走勢，雖然隨後價格止住跌勢後出現了一定幅度的反彈，但整體弱勢格局並未出現任何的轉變。目前周線MACD指標仍在死叉過程當中，而且價格仍未能擺脫MA5均線的壓力效果，暗示後市走勢隨時有可能會繼續延續此前的高位回落走勢，因此後市看多仍為時尚早。
- 後市行情參考
從周線級別的情況來看，目前金價仍在MA5均線壓力附近進行爭奪。如果在本周非農數據公佈後，價格能夠成功突破MA5均線帶來的壓力並有效站穩的話，後市或將或迎來一輪衝擊1900整數大關的過程；但如果非農數據公佈後金價失守1840一線關鍵支撐位置的話，那麼後市價格或將往回測試1790-1800區間的支撐效果，不排除會出現更進一步回落的情況。
（建議僅供參考，入市有風險，投資需謹慎）
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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