王垣鑫：黃金回調走勢有望開啟
9月9日當周現貨黃金繼續收低，據大田環球貴金屬現貨黃金盤面報價顯示，上周金價於1506美元/盎司一線，周中最高一度反彈至1524美元/盎司位置，但並未能有效站穩，後市繼續大幅度回落，最後收於1486美元/盎司附近，整體呈現沖高回落走勢。
市場關注下周美聯儲利率決議
整體而言美國消費水準仍極為強勁，可能給予美聯儲暫停加息步伐的空間，美聯儲9月再度降息幾乎為板上釘釘之勢，但美聯儲主席鮑威爾可能將後續降息推遲至10月之後。前美聯儲主席耶倫表示，美國的經濟是健康的，但她重申了上月的警告，承認美國經濟衰退的可能性有所增加，但認為衰退不會到來。
另外美國8月零售銷售向好，且前值上修 週五美國商務部公佈數據顯示，美國8月零售銷售強於預期，且前值得以上修。整體而言，美國消費水準仍極為強勁，可能給予美聯儲暫停加息步伐的空間。耶倫表示，美聯儲有望推動通脹達到2%的目標，不過對持續疲軟的物價壓力持謹慎態度。關於美聯儲應該將利率降至零或負值以為國債融資的想法是一個“長期被否定”的概念。
周線回調或將開啟
從技術面上看，金價跌破此前一直依靠的ma5均線支撐持續了連續兩周的時間，ma5均線亦開始向下拐頭形成壓力，失去支撐力度後合併kdj指標三線的高位回落，價格有望從高位開啟回調，整一波上漲幅度從1266美元/盎司一線開始到1557美元/盎司，幅度達到291美元，後市回調或將有機會回踩1410美元/盎司甚至前兩年高點1375美元/盎司一線位置。
但需要注意一點，雖然連續兩周跌破ma5均線支撐，但ma5是否能成功向下拐頭形成壓力仍是未知之數，需要再經過一周時間的觀察，若下周金價繼續走低，價格收盤價低於周線ma10則可視為回調開啟的確認信號，後市可以周線級別ma5的均線壓力附近位置作為進場參考。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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