林幽沃：日本貨幣政策將迎來改變
關鍵字：收益率，貨幣政策，債券
在前段時間特朗普公開宣言不喜美聯儲在經濟增長週期中進行加息，令到市場質疑貨幣政策的獨立性是否存在。如今，一直受“安倍經濟學”困擾的日銀放出消息，在下周的利率決議上有可能討論小幅去寬鬆的消息，導致本周初日元跳漲，債市受到了一定的影響。
受日本國債收益率跳漲影響，全球政府債券價格大幅下跌。美國10年期國債收益率上升6個基點，再度接近3%水平線。歐洲債市遭到拋售的跡象，德國與英國10年期國債收益率分別上升4個基點，至0.4%附近和1.27%附近。
在日本首相安倍晉三上任後，日銀一直保持開著直升機撒鈔票的貨幣政策。但在日前，日銀官員稱達到通脹目標依然有較長的時間，認識到過度寬鬆的貨幣政策可能並不能達到他們想要的效果。而日銀行長一直鑒於首相的方針影響，導致長時間內都無法進行貨幣的收縮嘗試。而在近兩年來，歐美國家紛紛進入加息週期，日銀也有了縮減購債規模的動作，意圖嘗試調整自身的貨幣政策。
日本債券收益率對於日銀來說一直都是調控目標，在接近“0”的收益率面前，日本企業借款成本非常之低。如果日銀有意提升日本債券收益率的話，無疑會對實體經濟造成影響，但結果是好是壞確實無法估計。
從美聯儲加息收縮的貨幣政策來看，特朗普選擇用超大力度的稅改措施來大幅刺激實體經濟的復蘇，令到美國經濟恢復起色。而日本一直處於力度較大的寬鬆貨幣政策的環境中，但卻一直無法有所起色，日銀本次如果能夠調整當前貨幣政策，日本經濟有望得到新的變化。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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