熊傲君：非農數據強勁，金價不為所動！
2018.03.12黃金策略
上周回顧：上周金價出現周初小幅反彈後，卻沒有延續，而是在週三開始回落，並且補回周內漲幅，整體呈現沖高回落走勢。上周仍然受到眾多利空消息面影響，包括非農資料，官員講話以及美元走勢等等，不過在週五非農資料強勁的情況下卻也沒有導致金價進一步走弱，此乃預期散盡的影響，因此現階段金價仍然保持在1320一線附近波動，加息在即，市場更像在等待觀望，而非繼續承壓下行，這已經是多於多頭很好的信號。
消息面：美聯儲于上周發佈經濟褐皮書，表明美國勞動力市場保持強勁，而小非農資料也是印證了這點，週四的歐元區利率決議以及德拉基講話中沒有對美元達成施壓，而是導致歐元沖高回落，美元保持反彈走勢，到了週五萬眾矚目的非農資料中，就業人數增加大幅超過預期到達31萬，儘管薪資水準及失業率沒有到達預期，但表現依舊尚算靚麗，表明就業市場仍在穩步增長，暗示本年加息的節奏可能進一步加快。
今日展望：上周反復走勢過後，本周屬於加息前的關鍵一周，預料整體消息面仍是利空一線，但我們已經可以發現，利空對金價下行的影響已經是相當有限，反而是出現利多的時候，金價的強勢反彈力度相當大，因此本周更有可能是震盪偏弱走勢，待下周加息展開正式多頭上攻。日間暫時波動不大，建議仍舊是先觀察歐盤強弱走勢，圍繞1320-1325區間破位跟進，若歐盤有方向表現，美盤直接順勢跟進，上看1332，下看1313。
從現貨黃金4小時圖看：金價目前陷入震盪走勢，上周利空下跌後觸底反彈，留出下影陽線，表明下方支撐較為強勁，目前均線組表現較為糾結，短期方向並不明朗，以區間對待更為合理，形態上仍需後市進一步確認，MACD指標在0軸下方運行，但距離不遠，若有強陽上攻，亦會重回0軸上方，所以不論價格還是市場都靜待進一步消息的指引，操作上宜先觀察而後動。
操作建議： 1300-1320長線多單堅定持有，今年目標依舊是1400上方，加息前若有回檔依舊可以進場。加息前預料還會有一次探低機會，想跟進的不要再錯過了。短線上建議觀察歐盤強弱走勢，待1320-1325區間破位後美盤順勢跟進。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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