熊傲君：隔夜探底回升，金價繼續震盪
2018.03.13黃金策略
昨日回顧：昨日金價早間波動不大，保持在1320上方波動，不過隨後歐盤卻再度走弱，下破1320支撐，但由於美盤資料有限，市場較為平淡，金價無力續跌保持震盪走勢，而後半夜多頭再次發力重回1320上方，一度漲至1325附近，總體表現為探底回升走勢。加上週五的非農夜，金價已經連續兩日上演探底回升之勢，但關鍵恐怕還是在於能否延續，否則仍是震盪行情，加上加息在即，市場可能也較為謹慎。早間金價受壓於1325附近有所回落，預料亞盤仍舊保持在1320-1325區間，等候歐盤再次決定日內節奏。
消息面：昨日資料上較為稀少，市場反映較為平淡。上周美國勞動力市場保持強勁，就業人數增加大幅超過預期到達31萬，儘管薪資水準及失業率沒有到達預期，但表現依舊尚算靚麗，表明就業市場仍在穩步增長，暗示本年加息的節奏可能進一步加快。市場風險情緒在週一也發生了戲劇性的變化，雖然，此前美國總統特朗普已經在“貿易戰”中作出了明顯退讓，令市場稍稍緩解了緊繃情緒，並且國會共和黨人在遲遲找不到證據之後也放棄了對“通俄門”的進一步調查，朝鮮半島問題則繼續朝著柳暗花明的方向進展，但如此樂觀情緒在日本和歐洲證據風波面前卻只是曇花一現。
今日展望：昨日金價走勢還是較為反復，這是震盪行情很典型的例子，歐盤走弱後美盤長時間不延續，無力破低，導致反升，但是上漲後目前能否延續還是要等歐盤，所以現階段我們短期仍是要以區間震盪對待，大區間鎖定1310-1340，小區間在1315-1330，日內貌似偏強，但證據不足，所以目前需等待歐盤能否延續確認，比如上方1325一線多次測試，若能一舉擊破，那麼晚間有望到達1330上方附近，反之若再度跌穿1320，那麼晚間亦將重回1315，且後市加息保持震盪偏弱。
從現貨黃金4小時圖看：金價目前陷入震盪走勢，繼上周利空下跌後觸底反彈，昨晚再度走出築底反彈，形態上需要突破1325才能形成雙底結構，屆時才能多頭髮力，現階段均線組表現依舊糾結，MACD指標在0軸附近徘徊，表明具體方向仍不明朗，操作上宜保持1315-1325區間高拋低吸，等待破位再作跟進，預料加息前這種上下波動的走勢會較為常見。
操作建議： 1300-1320長線多單堅定持有，今年目標依舊是1400上方，加息前若有回檔依舊可以進場。加息前預料還會有一次探低機會，想跟進的不要再錯過了。短線繼續關注1315-1325區間，歐盤強弱做日內節奏。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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