熊傲君：央行決議周，市場將受輪番考驗
2018.03.19黃金策略
上周回顧：上周金價總體呈現震盪偏弱，受美聯儲本周加息影響，金價持續受壓下壓，不過總體幅度不大，以震盪下移區間為主，上周周初反復在1315-1325區間震盪，其後有過小幅上移區間1320-1330，不過週四週五再次受壓下行，最終週五一度下跌至1310附近，再次呈現回落至前期低點一線，直至後半夜才有止跌跡象，今日早盤金價圍繞1310-1314區間窄幅震盪中，預料周初整體金價表現仍是震盪偏弱。
消息面：上周尾數據有限，不過僅有的兩個美國經濟繼續表現強勁，短期給到金價進一步施壓。本周才是焦點，世界各大央行將舉行利率決議，其中最為重點的美國加息將會在北京時間淩晨發生，市場各界普遍認為美聯儲本周加息在若無意外的情況下，已經是大概率事件，這便推動此前一度持續承壓的美元絕地逢生。同時，全球範圍內紛亂的地緣政局，及由美國總統特朗普挑起的貿易戰爭戰火可能越燒越烈。
今日展望：現階段金價下移一個震盪區間，所以目前建議先關注1310-1320區間狀況，更短期的歐盤關注1315一線壓力，因為此處也是上週五下破後的頂底轉換處，若1310今日進一步失守，後市則有望跌至1300一線大關，加上美聯儲加息在即，在此之前，恐怕金價多頭難以抬升，不過中長線角度考慮，上方空間仍是較大，因此尚不必擔心，加息利空散盡後才是真正的良機。短線今日建議以1310-1320高拋低吸為上，配合歐盤破位跟進。
從現貨黃金4小時圖看：金價目前以震盪為主，呈現偏弱下行，現階段均線組呈現空頭排列向下施壓，MACD指標死叉下穿0軸，皆是現時較為弱勢的體現，近段時間歐美兩者聯繫變弱，相信是由於夏令時尚未充分交替，市場存在不適，再加上消息利空條件居多以及砸盤現象較為常見，所以操作上還應較為謹慎，建議日內還是逢高做空為主，低多為輔結合。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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