熊傲君：金價反復震盪，關注1320-1325區間反壓
2018.03.20黃金策略
昨日回顧：昨日金價沒有繼續承壓下行，而是小幅走低後反彈，隔夜最高接近1320一線附近，在美聯儲加息之前，金價保持震盪走勢。上周金價回落測試1310一線後，昨日早盤有一定延續，並最低跌至1307附近，不過隨後歐美盤沒有出現續跌，反而再次站穩1310上方，導致後面美盤發力拉升，再加上美元方面小幅走弱，金價也得到了喘息的機會，預料加息前金價仍將維持這個局面。
消息面：資料上昨日幾乎沒有，本周基本上就是利率決議周，除了美國，還有英國，澳洲，日本的利率決議，這些消息都會對市場影響較大，早間的澳洲聯儲公佈了3月貨幣政策會議紀要。澳洲聯儲表示，低利率在降低失業率、提高通脹方面起到了一定作用。澳洲2018年的GDP增速預期將超越潛在增速，而2018年的CPI將升至略高於2%的水準。接下來市場已在靜待週四淩晨的美聯儲利率決議。
今日展望：由於昨日沒有出現續跌，所以下行空間還是非常有限，事實表明追空還是要相對謹慎，現在市場皆在等待，容易導致一種利空出盡，金價大幅反彈的狀況，因此要密切留意。現階段金價回到1310上方，那麼在加息前預料金價仍舊是震盪居多，我們唯有見機行事，逐個區間看待，早間1315支撐較為強大，昨晚也是走出探底回升，所以目前應先看1315-1320區間，等待破位狀況，但是也不要追得較深，預料破位也只會帶來5美元左右的空間幅度。
從現貨黃金4小時圖看：
目前均線組已較為糾結，夾在短期均線組內部，大區間還是先鎖定1310-1330區間為上，要麼等加息後跟進，要麼圍繞區間高拋低吸，指標目前也有一定程度的鈍化，MACD再次走出金價但較接近0軸附近，未必能帶來太多漲幅，操作上建議以高空為主，低多為輔直至美聯儲加息後，中長線多單可堅定持有等待。
操作建議： 1300-1320長線多單堅定持有，今年目標依舊是1400上方，加息前若有回檔依舊可以進場。短線關注1310-1320區間，歐盤強弱做日內節奏，或破位進行順勢跟進。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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