美股驚天逆轉，黃金回升至1840上方
周一(1月24日)美元指數刷新近二周高點至96.13，美元兌其他所有G-10貨幣均走強，北歐貨幣因東歐局勢動蕩而表現落後。現貨黃金震蕩上行，收報1843.06美元/盎司，投資者關注周三結束的美聯儲政策會議，尋找有關美聯儲今年將加息多少以及何時開始的信號。隨著美股大幅反彈，美油尾盤跌幅縮窄至1.25%，盤中一度大跌3.8%，因貨幣政策緊縮前景使避險情緒主宰金融市場。
美國1月Markit制造業PMI初值PMI錄得55，創2020年10月以來新低；美國1月Markit服務業PMI初值錄得50.9，創2020年7月以來新低
IHS Markit經濟學家Chris Williamson點評稱，今年年初，飙升的病毒病例已使美國經濟幾乎陷入停滯，供應鏈延誤和員工短缺加劇，企業受到幹擾，新的限制措施也將出台。然而，奧密克戎變異株對産出的影響遠遠超過需求，新企業流入的強勁增長暗示，一旦限制放松，增長將再次提速。此外，盡管與港口擁堵和航運短缺有關的供應鏈延誤繼續持續拖累經濟增長步伐，但與去年下半年大部分時間相比，供應鏈惡化的總體速度有所減緩。 這進而推動制造業對未來一年的樂觀情緒升至一年多來的最高水平，並大幅降低了原材料價格通脹率。因此，盡管調查顯示今年開局令人失望，但近期前景仍有一些令人鼓舞的信號。
古根海姆：美聯儲應該先從資産負債表發力
古根海姆首席投資官Scott Minerd表示，美聯儲應該著力減少貨幣供應量而不是上調短期利率，以遏制達到數十年來高位的通脹。他在報告中寫道，令我驚訝的是，考慮到上次美聯儲2018年加息時縮表對市場影響多麽糟糕，美聯儲還要考慮試圖同時加息和縮表，他表示，警告了“震懾性”做法的危險。意外的衝擊不會立即影響到通脹，但會立即影響已經高估的金融資産價格，破壞信心並損害經濟穩定。Minerd去年曾認為通脹會是暫時的，現在他表示，價格大幅上漲可能是“疫情後經濟複蘇的一個堅韌而持續的特征。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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