非農數據表現欠佳 英鎊“季節性”走勢強
現貨黃金市場2018年4月7日2點整收盤於每盎司1331.7美元，較前一交易日收盤價相比，上漲5.1美元，現貨白銀收盤跌0.05，報16.35美元/盎司。
非農欠佳情有可原：美國勞工部公佈的三月份非農就業報告，新增就業崗位大幅不及預期，失業率亦差於預期；但市場認為數據欠佳可能是天氣原因所導致，因此，最初市場對其反應並不強烈，美元近溫和下挫二十餘點，但隨後中國商務部及外交部先後強硬回應美國企圖對華進一步加稅事件，才令美元指數遭遇重創。美國3月非農就業新增人口錄得6個月來最小增幅，因溫和天氣帶來的提振作用有所消退，但薪資增速有所上揚；意味著就業市場仍在收緊，能夠對消費支出提供支撐，允許美聯儲今年進一步加息。
英鎊季節性行情再現：在本周美元止跌回升的大背景之下，英鎊表現仍舊異常強勁，周漲幅達0.53%，收報1.4088，在非美貨幣中可謂“一枝獨秀”，過去13年來，英鎊兌美元每逢4月都會上漲，美銀美林將之稱作G-10貨幣中最強的季節性趨勢。該行建議利用週期性走強模式開展兩個月期期權交易，瑞穗銀行和荷蘭合作銀行也對英鎊4月份會有卓越表現的趨勢表示了信心。與這一趨勢相對應的是，受到外國企業向英國股東派息以及在英國財年開始之際有其他投資流入的推動，每年此時英國的資金流入往往都會增加。美銀美林表示，以往即使是在金融不穩定和政治風險加劇的情況下，英鎊也會在4月份走強，這一事實也有助於增強對季節性因素的信心。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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