量化宽松政策对现货白银价格的影响有哪些
关键字：量化宽松政策对现货白银价格的影响有哪些
在经济发展正常的情况下，央行通过公开市场业务操作，一般通过购买市场的短期债券对利率进行微调，从而将利率调节至既定目标利率：而量化宽松则不然，其调控目标即锁定为长期的低利率，各国央行持续向银行系统注入流动性，向市场投放大量货币。即量化宽松下，中央银行对经济体实施的货币政策并非是微调，而是开了一剂猛药。
央行可以通过两种方式放松银根：改变货币价格(即利率)或改变货币数量。多年以来，正统的货币政策一直以前一个政策杠杆为中心。然而，随着通胀率回落、短期名义利率逼近零点，从原则上说，央行可以后一种方式，即数量杠杆来实施扩张性货币政策。影响经济活动的是实际利率而非名义利率。如果经济处于通缩状态，那么即使名义利率为零，实际利率也会保持正值。
量化宽松政策所涉及的政府债券，不仅金额庞大，而且周期也较长。一般来说，只有在利率等常规工具不再有效的情况下，货币当局才会采取这种极端做法。假如量化宽松政策施行过当，导致货币供应过多，通货膨胀重现，那么黄金、商品及房地产等实质资产可能将表现较佳。所以量化宽松政策给现货白银价格造成的影响一般是趋势性的上涨。现货白银价格从2008年10月8.5美元一盎司涨到2011年4月50美元一盎司，美国QE1和QE2扮演着白银升跌因素的重要角色。
在通胀期间，现货白银走势通常会比黄金强劲，因此现货白银在此轮量化宽松中很可能会上升50%。量化宽松是纯粹的通货膨胀，历史也告诉我们债务货币化的危险性。黄金和白银通常会在货币贬值时走强，这点QE1和QE2期间也有充分的佐证。总括而言，美联储的近年来的量化宽松政策为黄金和白银带来极大裨益。无论美联储如何包装，也改变不了量化宽松是债务货币化的本质。贵金属在通胀期间会上涨，而QE无疑代表着通胀的来临。凭空变出的钱越多，那么供应较慢的金银价格便会越高。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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